5 points. As recently as the 1970s, a voter’s preferences were only loosely moored to partisanship. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 5 percent to 40. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. For one, Democrats are outpacing President Joe Biden’s abysmal approval ratings in generic ballots: Slightly more than 43 percent of voters say that, if the election were held today, they would. RCP Poll Average. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. WPA Intelligence. In contrast, polls of close partisan elections can be extremely sensitive: whether Mr. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download. A bleak Senate outlook for Democrats just got bleaker. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Friday’s poll showed the generic Republican candidate is up seven points, with 48 percent of the likely U. President: Republican primary, Iowa, 2024. Split Ticket’s calculations showed an R+1. This 3-part map lets you view the current composition of the U. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 42%. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Earliest day for independent candidates to circulate and file nominating petitions. 22 to Nov. Kuster UNH Kuster 53, Burns 45 Kuster +8 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2. Select a state name to see its presidential voting history. Democrats +2. All 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. Polls analyzed. CNN: D 51%, R 42% (D+9) Democrats won a net of 40 seats. Trends in 2024 Types of ballot measures. For Ballotpedia's presidential approval, congressional approval, direction of the country, and generic congressional ballot polling results, we take an average of the most recent polls (from the last 30 days, with some exceptions for major news events) on one or more of these topics conducted by the. Republicans (R) July October 2020 April July October 38 40 42. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 6 percent). 78%. The 2018 midterm elections are a. Specifically, the generic-ballot polling average the previous September overestimates the president’s party’s vote margin by an average of 3. 42%. Download the data. John Anthony Castro, a longshot Republican 2024 presidential candidate, filed a complaint in a New Hampshire court arguing that Trump should be banned from the state's primary ballot while arguing. Download. Therefore, we also make our data available for download so you can play with. 3 Trump +46. Trump. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Races called correctly. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. No Labels wants to be on the ballot in all 50 states. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. YouGov. ABC’s Jonathan Karl and 538 blogger Nate Silver -- noted that the recent polls about Obama’s approval rating and the generic ballot. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat. Trump. David Schweikert won his race by less than 1. Specifically, we looked at what would happen if you made a forecast based solely on the partisan lean of a state or district, plus generic-ballot results. On Wednesday morning, another generic. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 19, 2020. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. April 1, 2023 July 1 Oct. 8 percentage points, is too aggressive and will usually. Download the data. The average from FiveThirtyEight looks at polls from Morning. 5. 8, 2022. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 1 points. In October 2014, the generic ballot stood here: Fox: D 45%, R 43% (D+2) CNN: D 49%, R 43% (D+6) (NPR’s last poll of registered voters. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023; 2024 Election. Democrats lose generic ballot lead: Congressional Democrats have lost their advantage over congressional Republicans on the generic ballot, with likely voters now evenly split — 46% to 46% — on the question. 6 national generic ballot after accounting for uncontested seats, most of which were won by Republican candidates this year. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. They Didn’t Start Voting Differently From Men Until 1980. Biden EPIC-MRA. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. ”. 46%. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. At least 15 congressional races already feature a challenger who faced the current incumbent on the general election ballot in 2022. The generic ballot in those combined districts, pitting an unnamed Democratic candidate against an unnamed Republican candidate, was tied at 39 percent among registered voters. B. July 14-25. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Ahead of the U. 3 points as of today. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. The method of calculating the generic ballot that we use on our generic ballot interactive, which currently shows Democrats ahead by 10. 2 percent in an average of all. Aug. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The first, from our colleagues at ABC News and The Washington Post, showed Republicans 1 point ahead on the generic ballot among registered voters but 2 points ahead among likely voters, making. Climate Power is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. 32. 2014 Generic Congressional Vote. Generic ballot polling average. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Biden. Download. 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. How do you like your House forecast? Lite. The data point for 2014 reflects this year’s generic congressional ballot, a poll-based projection of the national House vote. 2% Republican 45. At least 15 congressional races already feature a challenger who faced the current incumbent on the general election ballot in 2022. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. Since May 2022, Republicans have lost a slight edge on the generic ballot. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. You can contact your state or local election administrator for an official sample ballot. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 2 Republicans currently lead by 2. Jan 23 New Hampshire presidential primary election Latest news and analysis Latest news Harris tells CNN that she and Biden will ‘have to earn our reelect’. 8 percent). In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 2. The graph below shows how the FiveThirtyEight generic-ballot polling average 2 shifted in the last 90 days of the 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 midterms. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 47%. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. +5. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Trump. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Generic ballot; Trump approval; Search for a race or candidate + Back to the national overview. 1 Oct. 2024 Presidential Ballot Access . 2024 Elections; Top Stories. November 21, 2023, 3:58 PM. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. S. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. Election 2024 Polls; Generic Congressional Ballot; Senate Polls; State of the Union Polls; RCP Election 2024. On Election Day the red wave crashed ashore, with the GOP recording. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2024 Republican Debates. So I believe that yes the generic ballot could revert back, but on average, the movement is smaller, something close to R+1-R+2. We use numbers to express uncertainty. 42%. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The lead for a Republican candidate has nearly doubled since last week on the generic congressional ballot, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly poll released Friday. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. Download. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. B/C. 41%. In 2019, about 39 percent of Virginia’s voting-eligible population cast a ballot, well below the turnout rate in the 2020 presidential (72 percent), 2021 gubernatorial (52 percent) and 2022. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Democrats won. KEY. May 20, 2023 at 7:00 a. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 2024 election guide: Presidential candidates, polls, primaries and caucuses, voter information and results for November 5, 2024 In 2018, the prediction was right on target. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. S. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. 13 to Sept. Download. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. 8. 83%. True, these sort of. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Violent clashes break out in Dublin after knife attack that injured 3 children,. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. And the generic ballot. In that election, the GOP flipped control of the House with a. Overall, Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate are 68-in-100, according to the Deluxe version of our forecast. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. No bachelor’s. Democrats now enjoy a small but notable lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot with less than three months before crucial midterm elections, according to. A week ago. Download the data. Download. 1 Nov. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. m. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Ahead of the U. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. House and governor. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Election 2024 Polls; Generic Congressional Ballot; Senate Polls; State of the Union Polls; RCP Election 2024. RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Filed under 2020 Election. 300: LV: Aug. 46%. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. America's Voice is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. 6. Download. Generic ballot. 48%. The prediction is that the Republicans will win 47% of the representatives in the Electoral College (253), and the Democrats. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 45. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download. Download the data. 2024 Generic Congressional Vote: CNN: Republicans 48, Democrats 47: Republicans +1: 2024 Generic Congressional Vote: Economist/YouGov: Republicans 42, Democrats 43: Democrats +1: Congressional Job. Click on your candidates to read their biography, view past election. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association,. 5. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. It may also be the case, though, that Omar just didn’t take her primary challenge too seriously. Republican Rep. 49. 49. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Not running. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. For instance, Omar and Samuels didn’t debate, and despite amassing a sizable war chest of her. Generic ballot polling average. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Democrats Republicans; Likely: Leans: Toss up: Likely: Leans: Toss up: Date State Prev ious Status New Status Dems Toss Ups GOP Pick-Up Range Avg Gain Average Gain; 11/6: NY19 NY19: Leans GOPMarch 28-April 5. Interestingly, the Economist model has a very similar % chance for control as 538 but projects popular vote at R+0. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 9 . Biden. The average showed generic Democrats with an average of 44. Download the data. 2024 Elections Truth-o-Meter True Mostly True Half True. Kennedy Harvard-Harris Trump 44, Biden 36, Kennedy 21 Trump +8 General Election. The Republican Party currently controls the U. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination. Download the data. Club for Growth Action (super PAC) Club for Growth Action (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023. The House polls are consistent with the generic ballot results. in fear that they would imperil a President Biden victory in 2024. 2. +25. Download the data. All 2014 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. 4. FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. In 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, the margin on the generic congressional ballot was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45%. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Here in 2018. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 0. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. On Election Day the red wave crashed ashore, with the GOP recording. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2 percentage points (45. Download. Moore Information. Keep it simple, please — give me the best forecast you can based on what local and national polls say. This isn’t a popularity contest™. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Rasmussen. The 538 running average of the generic ballot puts Democrats at 46% to Republicans 45%. Biden’s performance across 40 nonpartisan House polls taken since. Trump maintains a 10-point lead among White voters, while trailing Biden. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Wisconsin +2 dem. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Trump. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Democrats will likely lose West Virginia's Senate seat in 2024. 4 points. 6 percent to 43. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Download. That’s down from a high of 71-in-100, which persisted from Sept. Download the data. Download. Most recent cycle. Download. As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Filter by poll type or state. In testing this. For the 18 midterm elections that have taken place since 1946, I compared the final generic-ballot polling of the cycle by Gallup or the final polling average from RealClearPoliticsGallup surveys. Six pollsters 1 have released generic ballot polls both before and after the Dobbs decision. KEY. , also rated as an A+ pollster by FiveThirtyEight, had Democrats ahead by only 2 percentage points. 3. Download. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. degree. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 47%. (SDCL. 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access in South Dakota Brochure. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Between the House (435 races), Senate (35) and gubernatorial races (36), we issued forecasts in a total of 506 elections. By Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Meredith Conroy. 0 10 20 30 40 50% Election Day Nov. 0 percent). 02. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Trump is the widely presumed front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. Trump. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 0. Jun. Download the data. 48. Download the data. Republicans (R) July October 2020 April July October 38 40 42. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Every state in the union now has a new congressional map in place for the 2022 election. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. Murray. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Senate, U. And a nice sanity check for the various 538 house models. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 849 registered voters in the United States from July 5-7, 2022. 6 attack on the Capitol off the ballot in 2024. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. House and make a. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 13-17 found that 40 percent of likely 2024 voters would. And as it happens there are basically 400 days to go until Election Day 2010, and here’s how the generic congressional ballot for 2009-2010 looks so far: If you visualize in your mind the gap. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 2 Republicans currently lead by 2. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 43. On average, Democrats are running about 4. Sixty-two percent of generic-ballot undecideds disapprove. 0 points. Democrats +2. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 1 Sept. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. But republican results seem to have more variance. Primaries by state. Read More ABC News Photo Illustration, Getty - FrankRamspott The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Ashcroft’s original description of the proposed abortion amendments, which could go on the ballot in 2024 if supporters gather enough voter signatures, would have. 11, 2023. 9 points on the actual house popular vote in Nov, a 4. 8, 2022 leader Kelly Kelly +1. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 3 Democrats currently lead by 0.